The northern lights, also known as the aurora borealis, have been less visible in recent weeks despite predictions of heightened solar activity. Here are a few reasons why:
While the sun's activity has been increasing overall, it does not rise steadily. The sun goes through cycles of high and low activity, with the current solar cycle expected to peak around 2024-2025
To see the northern lights, you need clear, dark skies. Cloudy weather or moonlight can obscure the aurora even when solar activity is high.
The weather in northern latitudes where the lights are most visible can be unpredictable, with frequent cloud cover.
The auroral oval, the region around the magnetic north pole where auroras are most commonly seen, is constantly shifting. Strong solar storms can expand the oval, allowing the lights to be seen farther south.
The timing of solar storms relative to nighttime hours is also a factor. Auroras are most often seen between 10 PM and 2 AM local time. If a solar storm occurs during daylight hours or when the sky is too bright, its effects may not be visible.
With predictions of an active solar cycle, some may have unrealistic expectations for constant, bright auroras. In reality, even during solar maximums, there are many nights with no visible activity.